Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-09-29 15.267612 17.773146 20.510397 23.716097 27.360447 31.367388 36.099155
2024-10-06 12.057534 15.670398 20.005112 25.555839 32.438185 40.651814 51.152817
2024-10-13 9.463939 13.543780 18.851563 26.182313 35.950532 48.412958 65.391362
2024-10-20 7.591609 11.835069 17.762540 26.501487 38.880058 55.578213 79.549525
2024-10-27 6.226258 10.487849 16.831885 26.739300 41.538444 62.479025 93.903524
2024-11-03 5.605372 10.092024 17.143332 28.701593 46.745112 73.297970 114.606987
2024-11-10 4.960544 9.512794 17.041281 29.949461 50.933540 82.935715 134.367851
2024-11-17 4.395232 8.947535 16.845147 30.963970 54.787297 92.320462 154.441734
2024-11-24 3.722726 8.054360 15.941742 30.644379 56.385841 98.257831 169.577179
2024-12-01 3.062496 7.050089 14.674880 29.494911 56.408128 101.581620 180.707119
2024-12-08 2.551802 6.239015 13.629087 28.576467 56.673670 105.240011 192.549795
2024-12-15 2.243014 5.790702 13.207452 28.748825 58.863469 112.270346 210.476130
2024-12-22 1.936664 5.300538 12.656110 28.655423 60.658751 118.949569 228.668184
2024-12-29 1.808093 5.203354 12.917437 30.234393 65.809393 132.062168 259.204266
2025-01-05 1.610808 4.894964 12.670744 30.724305 68.875717 141.610265 284.052099
2025-01-12 1.425489 4.575288 12.345833 30.998030 71.522475 150.565143 308.437106
2025-01-19 1.263036 4.279158 12.026107 31.234022 74.098522 159.558434 333.487970
2025-01-26 1.226227 4.331910 12.559822 33.470519 81.091510 177.616396 376.858673
2025-02-02 1.149215 4.248515 12.738549 34.894511 86.454714 192.812750 415.653708
2025-02-09 1.066664 4.129095 12.805109 36.053979 91.333452 207.358949 454.058298
2025-02-16 0.931498 3.806563 12.278120 35.686966 92.743115 214.903342 479.047965
2025-02-23 0.781396 3.391330 11.421930 34.369781 91.827078 217.515970 494.243180
2025-03-02 0.661975 3.048366 10.707770 33.316955 91.407153 221.112015 511.625141